Monthly Archives: April 2021

 “The First Amendment is first for a reason.
Second Amendment is just in case the first one doesn’t work out.”  
– Comedian, Dave Chappel

Victor David Hansen in his article How Much Ruin Do We Have Left?  identifies and explains the changes led by the current presidential administration that is introducing, supporting, and reinforcing some significant and fundamental changes to our system of government. 

• “We are now witnessing a concentrated effort to alter the constitutional order and centuries of custom and tradition. Only that way, the Left believes, can it retain its transient power given the unpopularity of most of its current agenda.  …. Modern Jacobins seek to erase our founding in 1776. “
  
• “Adam Smith said of successful societies that they have a lot of “ruin” in them. He meant that a dissolute, leisured, and ahistorical generation has to waste a lot of its generous inherited wealth before it runs out. … We are learning how much will soon be left of what our ancestors bequeathed. And the rest of the world is watching—some with glee, others with horror.”

The President’s current approval rating is averaging 53.8% which is among the lowest of modern-day presidents.

The design of the American system of government was influenced by the founder’s insight into human nature derived from their knowledge of history, philosophy, and Judeo-Christian values identified in the Bible. The aim of our system is to work towards “a more perfect Union” made possible by the Bill of Rights. The system was designed to be continuously improved. 

A current debate in the U.S. includes the challenge to America’s founding illustrated by the contrasts between The 1619 Project introduced by the New York Times and the 1776 Commission Report commissioned by the previous administration.  Additional information on American Civics provided at RealClear Public Affairs.

Conservator commentator Pat Buchanon illustrates the divide between conservativism and the Left regarding perspectives on Americanism captured in the response to the verdict in the George Floyd case: Is America led today by anti-Americans?

• How can America unite again to do great things if we are led by people who believe America suffers from a great sickness of the soul, an original sin that dates back to her birth as a nation?

The Judeo-Christian values are derived from a biblical worldview and the moral code includes the 10 Commandments. The Bible reinforces that only God is perfect, man is imperfect and expected to improve. Jesus Christ provides the standard of perfection.  SaturateUSA is a national strategy to support sharing the good news (word of God) with 120 Million Homes in the U.S. BY 2027.

• Joe Biden Leaves God Out of the National Day of Prayer, Kathryn Lopez National Review May 12, 2021

Biblical philosophy identifies a greater “reset.” When man and woman were given the choice between good and evil, they chose evil.  The birth, death, and resurrection of Jesus Christ provide humanity with a second chance to choose good and gain eternal life. The greater “reset” as outlined in the Book of Revelations, prophecizes that evil will be vanquished and there will be peace throughout the world.  This will be preceded by what Jesus described as challenging times that reinforce the need for unity and leadership: 

• “You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. These things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth pains.” (Mark 13:1–8; Luke 21:5–9)

The historical opposition to the biblical worldview in a political context has been from those that believe that individuals (man) can serve as the moral authority and can identify, establish and enforce a moral standard, e.g., man is the moral authority as opposed to God. Our founders understood this challenge and built in the needed checks and balances on power into our Constitutional Republic. These features include: The three branches of government executive (president), legislative (congress), judicial (supreme court), Electoral College, Federalism, varying lengths of office for Congress (2 years), Senate (6 years), and President (4 years). Federalism divides powers between the federal government and states. The State Legislatures have the power to establish election processes in the context of the constitution.  The 2020 elections identified the need for improvement in many areas.

Many elites in areas that include the political, technological, corporate, economic, and media challenge the philosophy of self-government supported by the rule by the few. They often believe that the failures and mistakes of past efforts by the elites of the time can be avoided through their unique brand of leadership in support of their vision of utopia. And, within any group of elites, there are always a few that work to further consolidate power under their leadership. 

The consolidation of power by the few has been represented throughout history by political systems that have embraced genocide, fascism, nazism, marxism, socialism, dictatorships, totalitarianism, and communism to name a few. Socialism provides a transition to communism. The results have included deaths in the millions through actions that have included genocide, starvation, mass murder, imprisonment, and reeducation (political and spiritual). The current “cancel” culture adds to the divisiveness by demonizing those with an opposing point of view. 

The “Great Reset” is the globalist vision for centralizing power wielded by the few that would be supported by the consolidation of political, economic, spiritual, and military power. The Administration’s Build Back Better strategy proposes significant “systemic” changes in America that shift more power to the federal government. “Divide and Conquer” has been a proven strategy that can be supported through various strategies to include: identity politics, social justice, illegal immigration, climate change, open borders, intersectionalism, systemic racism, critical race theory, cancel culture,  wokeism, selective enforcement of the law, and projection where you accuse your opponents of doing the very thing you have been doing.

From an economic perspective, Ray Dalio in his analysis of historical trends documented in his book The Changing World Order reinforces the dangers of debt, inflation, and devaluation of the dollar. He reinforced that economic challenges combined with political and cultural change can lead to major conflicts (wars) and a re-alignment of the world order. 

In a 2021-Open-Letter-From-Retired-Generals-and-Admirals-9-May-2021, over 120 retired Flag officers warned of the threats to the nation from socialism and marxism: 

• Our Nation is in deep peril. We are in a fight for our survival as a Constitutional Republic like no other time since our founding in 1776. The conflict is between supporters of Socialism and Marxism vs.supporters of Constitutional freedom and liberty.
• During the 2020 election an “Open Letter from Senior Military Leaders” was signed by 317 retired
  Generals and Admirals and, it said the 2020 election could be the most important election since our
  country was founded. “With the Democrat Party welcoming Socialists and Marxists, our historic way of
  life is at stake.” Unfortunately, that statement’s truth was quickly revealed, beginning with the election
  process itself.

Marxism: the political, economic, and social theories of Karl Marx including the belief that the struggle between social classes is a major force in history and that there should eventually be a society in which there are no classes Merriam-Webster

Space Force commander fired for comments on Marxist influences in the ranks, Washington TImes.

In a reaction to the Fifth International Vatican Conference and its topics and speakers, a competing Vatican counter-conference has been scheduled – “Truth Over Fear:”  

• The conference will feature a Holocaust survivor, Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò, and others on the left, right, and center who will expose the tyranny the world faces.

Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò sent two open letters to President Trump warning  of the dangers of the Great Reset:

• June 6, 2020. Archbishop Viganò’s powerful letter to President Trump: Eternal struggle between good and evil playing out right now
• Oct 25, 2020. Archbishop Vigano warns President Trump about ‘Great Reset’ in an Open Letter. Vigano concludes: Viganò concludes: “This Great Reset is destined to fail because those who planned it do not understand that there are still people ready to take to the streets to defend their rights, to protect their loved ones, to give a future to their children and grandchildren.”

Within the first 100 days of the Biden administration, proposed changes have included a barrage of Executive Orders and legislation to include the following (‘I Feel Like Paul Revere’: Pat Robertson Sounds Alarm on Stunning List of Democrat Power Grabs):   

• Passage of a Voting Rights Act which federalizes elections, takes away the power of state legislatures, permits unsupervised and unlimited mail-in ballots, and allows ballot harvesting.
• Elimination of the long-standing Senate filibuster which denies effective power to the minority. In a 50/50 Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris becomes a deciding vote to allow other controversial steps to be taken by the Senate.
• Statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico which would permit the election of four new Democrat senators to keep the Senate in Democrat hands for the foreseeable future.
• Supreme Court-packing with four new liberal justices which would destroy the independence of the judiciary.
• Under the guise of infrastructure, an effort to allocate tens of billions to liberal groups throughout America.
• A plan to give citizenship to millions of undocumented immigrants who they hope will repay them by voting for Democrats.
• And finally, ongoing efforts to run the government by executive fiat.

From a spiritual perspective, James Dobson, the founder of the James Dobson Family Institute, has concluded that:

• … the plans made clear by Biden’s Democrat party for a rollback in religious rights, promotion of abortion and a requirement that taxpayers fund it and other “radical” campaigns points. Since Biden has taken office the nation has been divided on topics including race, sexual orientation, politics, spending, socialism, rioting, police and even what is a crime.

Angelo Codevilla, in his article  To Rescue a Nation, identifies a strategy for countering adverse trends:

• What does it take to re-found a nation? The question is lively for twenty-first century Americans because the changes that have taken place in the bipartisan ruling class that controls nearly all our institutions have explicitly denied and denigrated what had made America itself. Today’s ruling class leads and even forces Americans to act, speak, and think as if all that they had thought good were bad, and vice versa. Almost as if a vengeful power had conquered the country. At least half the country yearns for some kind of rescue.

J.E. Dyer in her article A new ‘domestic terrorism strategy’ brings back an old information playbook; * June 21, 2021, provides some historical context for major change and reinforces the capability for successful counteractions:

• We see this time.  The communication modes are too many and varied for us to remain blind   It hasn’t become clear just yet what this clarity may be preparing us for, but it does make us wrong to dismiss hope.  If there is vision, may we not say that the people at least need not perish?  America is 245 years old this year because, incredibly, we have beaten the odds every time.  Don’t count us out.

As individual citizens, we may have little to some control over what is happening at the global and national levels, but we do have more control over what can happen at the county (local) level of government. Working towards achieving “a more perfect “county” and community requires a strategy and method that includes identifying how citizens define “more perfect” to include the evidence they need to determine when the change results in improvement. A shared expectation could be that decisions will result in outcomes where everyone gains or at least, are not any worse off in the long-term.

The local level of government can be a microcosm of the larger system. A political monopoly on power, lack of term limits, and transparency can create conditions that can contribute to an abuse of power, poor decision-making, and disrespect for the citizens that elected officials pledge to serve.

In the quality profession represented by the Americal Society for Quality (ASQ), it is an established fact that the closer a product or service gets to the ideal (more perfect), the higher the quality and lower the cost to the customer and society. As a customer as well as a citizen, don’t you expect a product or service to meet your expectations regarding quality and cost?

A concept that supports a secular and Christian approach to change and improvement is outlined in the presentation – “A Way Ahead for America – a secular and non-secular approach to improvement.“  This presentation includes a link (see Community Leader Network) to the Brown County Leader Network that introduces how the concepts can be applied at the local level in supporting efforts in working towards “a more perfect County and Community.”

The 5 Minute Talk on Reducing Variation
By Timothy J. Clark

In 1924, Dr. Walter Shewhart of Bell Labs discovered an innovative yet simple way to manage variation. His breakthrough is similar to the discovery that the earth was not flat, in that it is so revolutionary, that it too will take over a century to be considered common knowledge.

All action is accomplished through a process and system.  For instance, commuting (traveling) to work or school is a process made possible by a transportation system. Shewhart’s methods help determine when a change to a system or process is needed, the type of action needed, and how to determine if the change resulted in an improvement.

Dr. W. Edwards Deming, who has been recognized for his contributions in expanding upon Shewhart’s concepts and promoting the application of the methods worldwide, remarked that if he had to reduce his message to just a few words, it all had to do with reducing variation from the ideal … which begs the question “What is the ideal?”

Variation

Variation is a law of nature that states that everyone and everything is unique— one of a kind. No two things are ever exactly alike. It is the difference between an ideal outcome and the actual situation. An ideal result represents a standard of perfection as defined by yourself and others. You can strive for but never achieve that ideal situation—a fact that makes continuous improvement and progress possible. (ASQ What is the Law of Variation?)

Expanded Description of Variation

Typically, the term variation has been defined in statistical and scientific terms, which has limited its applicability and understanding on a broader basis. To relate the concept on an individual basis, consider the example of personal health and fitness.

For purposes of discussion, let’s presume that if we do everything under our control regarding our diet and exercise habits, we will live longer and have a quality of life that benefits ourselves and others – stakeholders would include family, friends, and the community.

Given the variation principle, it’s a fact that you will never have the ideal quantity and quality of exercise, vitamins, and nutrients required for perfect health. There will always be a difference between the ideal outcome and the actual. In other words, there will always be “variation.”

Now this difference can be thought of as a problem. But considering the variation principle, a problem represents a judgment that the variation is unacceptable. For example, hunger is a problem, but it also represents an unacceptable degree of variation. When you eat something to satisfy your hunger, you now have an acceptable degree of variation. Variation always exists and either gets better or gets worse.  In other words, you are either making progress in implementing and sustaining a healthier diet and exercise program or you are risking an earlier death and a poorer quality of life by sustaining current habits and routines, e.g., the status quo.

Using the health and fitness metaphor, consider the health and fitness within your organization, community, or country. In embracing the new perspective, the immediate steps are to identify the ideals and implement solutions that will result in making progress toward those ideals. To help make the case for change, it also helps to identify the cost and risk of doing nothing.   

Simple Actions, Powerful Results

Sometimes, simple actions can be taken that can have immediate and significant impacts.

When it was accepted belief that the earth was flat, learning that it was not flat would have been as easy as getting on a ship to discover new worlds.  I am going to propose a simple challenge that will take you only a few minutes to do but has the potential to change your perspective and improve the quality of your problem-solving and decision-making skills.

Among the best ways to understand variation is to develop a run chart. An easy way to get started is for you to weigh yourself 24 times within a period of 30 days and record the data by date and time. When you have the 24 data points, calculate the median and plot your weight and on a run chart. For an example, see: Assess your knowledge of variation?

The final step in the exercise is to determine if you lost weight, gained weight, or stayed about the same. This simple exercise will provide the basic knowledge for assessing the outcomes from a system or process, no matter whether it is in your personal life, organization, community, or country.   

I hope you choose to take the challenge to learn more about variation. I also hope that you will apply what you learn with the aim of helping to improve your organization and your country. The result may be a “healthier” quality of life for us all.

More Info: SuccessThroughQuality.com

Quick Assessment of Your Knowledge of Variation
By Timothy J. Clark

Updated Mar 18, 2024

The following six people were selected and trained to perform a specific series of tasks over four days.

They received the same amount of training, were given the same equipment and materials to perform the tasks, were provided with comfortable working conditions, and were adequately supervised.

You want to recognize and encourage the top performers (the lower the number the better) with the intent of maintaining and improving performance. Below are the results.

Performance Report – Who are the top performers?

If this process represented the cumulative results of wrong answers on a daily 50-question test in school and the teacher was grading on the curve, the distribution of grades would be 30-32 = A, 33-35 = B, 36-38 = C, 39-41 = D and 42-44=F. A column that provides status by color codes is also provided to help assess performance.

Who would you select as the top performer (s)?

Wrong Answer:  Applying the traditional view of variation, choosing the “top performers” – those with lower numbers or higher grades, would be the wrong answer.

The Right Answer.  Applying the new perspective on variation, the correct answer is that based on the results, there is no significant difference between the people performing the tasks, or in other words, there are no top performers. The variation in their performance is normal or common. Taking action, such as recognizing “top performers,” represents tampering – spending time or money on a non-valued added action, which tends to make things worse and not better and reinforces the status quo. (Personal Story: Are Grades Effective and Fair?

Explanation

Since the outcomes from the process represent common causes of variation, the process is stable or predictable. In other words, If you always do what you always did, on average, you will usually get what you always got. Stable does not necessarily mean good, it just means that given all of the variables, results from the process are predictable.  Other terms for a stable process would be routine and habit. 

Imagine tracking the amount of time it takes you to brush your teeth every day. Would it even occur to you to reward yourself for a “top performance”?

If you want to improve the result of any process, you must make a permanent and fundamental change. Indications of special cause variation would provide feedback on the results of the change. For example, fad diets can represent tampering. They often result in temporary weight loss but often do not result in a fundamental change in diet and exercise routines.

Applying Some New Methods

These methods can be applied to assess the results from any system or process (habit, routine) that can settle into a steady state. Media headlines that refer to numerical information provide another source of examples. Most of the headlines are misleading if not totally wrong. Application examples could include:

• Sports: Basketball Free Through Shooting, American Football Field Goal Kicking,
• National:  Budget deficits, unemployment and employment rates, crime statistics, suicide rates, health care access rates, car accidents
• Personal:  Savings, individual weight, travel times.  

USAFacts.org has examples of trends on national issues.  When looking at the run charts, try to visualize the centerline (median) passing through the middle of all the points and determining if things are getting better, worse, or staying about the same.    

Identifying the two causes of variation – Run Chart

The data from the Performance Report above is plotted below on a run chart and identifies that the variation only includes common causes. A run chart is a line graph of data plotted over time. Generally, 20-25 data points are needed to arrive at an accurate judgment. The Center Line (CL) can be calculated using the average or median. In this case, the median was used. The median is the value separating the higher half of the data from the lower half. For instance, if you were to plot the results from a personal routine or habit, such as the time it would take to commute to school, work, a friend or relative’s house, or your favorite store, the results may look similar to the chart below.   

Indications of Special Causes of Variation (1)

A special cause of variation could indicate a temporary or fleeting event or a change (positive or negative) in the process. Depending on the standard, the number of data points could range anywhere from 5-8 data points: Indicators of a shift in the process include the following: 

• 6 Consecutive Points in a row rising or falling.
• 8 Consecutive Points in a row above or below the center line.
• Points (outliers) that appear farther away from the center line; A outlier could indicate a special cause of variation.
• Nonrandom patterns: too close or too far from the center line or repeating cycles. The people closest to the process may be able to explain the patterns.

Given that there are no indications of special causes, the variation is assessed to be common and the process is determined to be stable (predictable).

Note that the American Society for Quality (ASQ) supported the AIG standard (7 data points rising and following or 7 points above or below the average) for their K-12 Education prototype referred to as Koalaty Kid. (1)

An additional and more advanced tool that can be developed is a Control (Process Behavior) Chart.  This is a run chart with upper and lower limits. In this example, the upper limit is 18.6 and the lower limit is zero. No points (outliers) fall outside the limits nor are there any nonrandom patterns or indications of cycles that would indicate a special cause.  Control charts are not appropriate in all cases. In the case of COVID-related data, for example, run charts are a better tool to help identify how the respective process/system is performing.

The Control Chart or Process Behavior Chart (2) can also be called Statistical Process Control (SPC). It was developed by Walter Shewhart in 1924 and is accepted worldwide. The upper and lower limits are based on the Three Sigma limit. Three Sigma is the probability that 99.73% of all outcomes will fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean (above or below). Shewhart identified the three-sigma limit as the practical and economical limits upon which action should be taken. (3)

 

Conclusion

This example was inspired by Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Experiment.  I had the opportunity to attend a four-day seminar conducted by Dr. Deming in 1988. I have conducted the experiment over 100 times and used pre and post-tests to illustrate the shift in thinking. The average score on the pre-test was a C. Everyone received an “A” on the post-test, but most likely, few, if any, adopted the new thinking. The experiment also reinforced observations by Winston Churchill:

• “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened.” 
• ‘United wishes and good will cannot overcome brute facts,’  ‘Truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it. Ignorance may deride it. Malice may distort it. But there it is.’

Deming spent about half the day on this exercise to reinforce the point that rewarding or punishing the “willing workers” did not improve the process and just demoralized them. The supporting videos are less than 10 minutes long.

Deming estimated that failure to understand the difference between common and special causes of variation resulted in decisions where 95% of changes could result in no improvement.  For an individual example, consider New Year’s resolutions. What percent of your resolutions have been successful – how many have resulted in a permanent and fundamental improvement?

Deming also considered the common practice of annual performance appraisals (and grades in school) as one of the Seven Deadly Diseases of Management. See also the post:  Are Grades Effective and Fair? 

The Ghost of Quality Future. Most people are confused about what quality means. Hopefully, better education in the coming decades will correct this. by Anthony D, Burns, Jan 13, 2022

American Society for Quality (ASQ) – What is the Law of Variation?

Footnotes:

(1) The Ambiguous Control Chart Trend Rule, Jay Arthur, Quality Digest. Trend rules are helpful in service industries but you need to know which one to use

(2) Don Wheeler proposed updating the terms to be more descriptive including the name – Process Behavior Chart.

(3) “Dr. Donald Wheeler in his book Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control, reinforced that the three sigma “limits” are not probability limits.…..it is important to remember that there are other considerations which were used by Shewhart in selecting this criterion….the strongest justification of three-sigma limits is the empirical evidence that the three sigma limits work well in practice – that they provide effective action limits when applied to real-world data.